It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. After Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
A reversion to average could be the biggest rival they will encounter in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the performer he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
